iLEAD HORIZON_October Issue_English Edition

总12期

How the US Election Will Affect the Chinese Stock Market

10.2024

Issue NO.

Editor’s 

Foreword

Dear Valued Investors,

The global economy is at a critical turning point, and it’s natural to feel uneasy in the face of a highly volatile market environment. As the President of iLead Group, I would like to share our insights on the current economic landscape and discuss how to navigate challenges and seize opportunities.

The global economy is undergoing a crucial phase of recovery and adjustment. The U.S. economy is performing robustly, with steady consumer spending, though inflationary pressures remain. However, the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate cut in mid-September has brought new optimism, injecting more vitality into the capital markets. Therefore, we firmly believe that short-term fluctuations do not signal a long-term downturn but may instead present new investment opportunities.

In the U.S., despite noticeable market volatility, the long-term outlook remains promising. Sectors like technology, healthcare, and renewable energy continue to offer strong growth prospects for investors. The resilience of the labor market and the stability of consumer spending provide a solid foundation for economic growth.

Of course, potential risks cannot be ignored. Inflationary pressures have yet to be fully alleviated, and fluctuations in energy and food prices could undermine consumer confidence. The long-term impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts remains to be seen. Additionally, the slow recovery of supply chains and ongoing global geopolitical tensions pose challenges to future economic recovery.

iLead Group, based in New York, brings together global business elites and is dedicated to providing sustainable growth strategies and efficient asset allocation solutions for high-net-worth individuals. In response to the current environment, we will adopt a balanced investment strategy that emphasizes both caution and flexibility. By diversifying across global assets, we aim to reduce risks associated with any single market or asset class. We will maintain a keen focus on sectors with long-term growth potential, adjusting our portfolio as necessary to manage short-term volatility. At the same time, we will closely monitor macroeconomic and policy changes to ensure our strategies remain flexible and responsive, striving to deliver stable returns.

While short-term market fluctuations are inevitable, we are confident in the long-term recovery of the global economy and the growth driven by innovation. Through a scientifically sound investment approach and robust risk management, we believe we can continue to provide sustained wealth growth for our investors.

In line with this vision, we are excited to introduce the iLEAD HORIZON monthly magazine, aimed at global investors and business leaders. This publication will share business wisdom, promote wealth management, and uncover global business opportunities. We look forward to working with you as we navigate these uncertain times and embrace the promising future of wealth growth. Thank you for your continued trust and support. With integrity as our compass, we will sail the seas of business, charting a course for lasting success.

President/Managing Partner

Adam Chen

Issue 1,  2024

Organizer:

iLead Group

Editor-in-Chief:

William Lo

Editor:

Lacey Liu

Layout Design:

Nemo Wang

Chief Planner:

Colin Miao

Address:

Phone:

For contribution:

99 Park Ave, Ste 830, 

New York, NY 10016

(212) 836-6060

horizon@ileadgroup

usa.com

Co-organizers:

iLead Law Group, P.C.

Fifth Ave Entrepreneurs Club

Asian American Attorneys Association

Community Legal Aid Center of NY

Creative Director:

Josh Zhu

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Your onthly Guide to Business and Wealth Management

 iLEAD HORIZON

Your onthly Guide to Business and Wealth Management

  iLEAD HORIZON

What Will Be the Next Global Economic Black Swan Event?

Revelations on the Rise and Fall of China’s Richest

What’s the Impact of Weakened Global FDI?

Wealth Overview

China-US Insights

Franco-Business Perspectives

The Impact of Recent U.S. Legislation on the AI Industry

How the US Election Will Affect the Chinese Stock Market

Tariffs in the U.S. and Europe:

What’s at Stake for China’s Electric Vehicles?

Tiktok the Legal Battle Behind TikTok’s Future

contents

iLEAD Group Insights

Overview of iLead Investment Projects and Activities

01

03

07

11

NEWS

2024.10

iLEAD NEWS

The Kansas Tax Rebate Special Fund, carefully selected by Leading Wealth, is nearing the completion of its due diligence process. The target project is located in a prime area within one of Kansas's key business districts, and it has received strong support from the local government. Once operational, the project is expected to receive substantial annual government tax rebates. Preliminary estimates suggest that the annualized return on this project could exceed 25%. If the project operates as expected, not only will the fund have stable returns, but more importantly, it will generate cash flow starting from the first year.

The Commercial-to-Residential Project in the Upper West Side of Manhattan, New York, has been approved by Leader Capital. With its prime location near Central Park and the American Museum of Natural History, along with a reasonable layout design, the project is expected to attract attention from both domestic and international investors. Preliminary estimates from the project team suggest an annualized return of over 22%. Leader Capital’s involvement in such development projects not only demonstrates its keen market insight and operational expertise but also reflects its commitment to driving local economic development.

iLead Fund

Approves the Manhattan Commercial-to-Residential Project

Issue 1,  2024

9月27日，2024年第三届金融投资论坛在艾利德律师事务所曼哈顿总部盛大举行，本次活动由五大道企业家俱乐部精心策划，由长江商学院、纽约大学客座教授、知名经济学家鲍文强博士主讲。鲍教授“加密货币的钱事金生”为题拉开本届金融投资论坛序幕。活动吸引了众多投资界精英、技术专家以及企业领袖的参与，场面别开生面。在鲍教授深入探讨了加密货币的技术基础与市场发展，强调了区块链技术的去中心化与安全性如何颠覆传统金融体系，并对未来几年内加密货币可能的变革进行了预测。活动尾声，以一场精彩的酒会，为与会者提供了一个绝佳的社交平台。此次论坛成功将投资者的目光聚焦于加密货币的未来，并通过重量级嘉宾的演讲和会员之间的深入互动，为与会者提供了宝贵的思路与合作契机。

“遗产规划与传承”

专题讲座

9月28日，美国亚裔律师协会《听律一席话》栏目隆重推出“遗产规划与传承”法律讲座，协会主席、艾利德律师事务所创始合伙人冉燕飞律师亲自与观众一起深入探讨遗产税、信托和遗嘱等重要法律专业问题。如冉律师所言，“生前要管身后事，一份周全的规划不仅能有效避免法律纠纷，更能在您的家人面临困境时，给予他们温暖与支持”，本次讲座通过生动的案例和互动讨论，为观众带来超值收益。

尽职调查即将收官

利德资本精心筛选的堪萨斯退税专项基金尽职调查进入尾声，标的项目位于堪萨斯州的重要商圈黄金地段，该项目得到了当地政府的大力支持，项目运营后，预计每年将获得高额的政府退税补贴。初步预计该项目的年化收益率将高达25%以上。如项目运营正常，该基金不仅回款稳定，尤为关键的是，从第一年开始即产生现金流。

项目立项

纽约曼哈顿上西区商改住项目通过利德资本立项，该项目凭借临近中央公园、自然历史博物馆的优越位置及合理的户型设计，将吸引海内外投资者的关注。经项目组初步测算，项目年化收益率预计在22%以上。利德资本参与此类开发项目，不仅展示了其在市场中的敏锐洞察力和专业运作能力，也彰显了其推动地方经济发展的决心。

news

2024.10

9月15日，纽约社区法律援助中心、艾利德集团参与由美国亚裔社团联合总会主办的第13届中秋家庭同乐日活动，当天约有上万人在布鲁克林参加文艺演出、儿童大型游乐活动。州参议员桑德斯和州众议员郑永佳、等也参与活动，纽约社区法律援助中心长期关注社区活动并支持社区发展，也是艾利德连接社区的重要平台。

艾利德·视界

洞见全球趋势  挖掘财富先机

  iLEAD HORIZON

艾利德·视界

洞见全球趋势  挖掘财富先机

  iLEAD HORIZON

Issue 1,  2024

In 2023, global foreign direct investment (FDI) witnessed a noticeable decline. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in its 2023 World Investment Report, the total FDI dropped by 2%, down to $1.3 trillion. Investment related to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) saw an even sharper decrease of over 10%. Does this shift represent a normal fluctuation, or does it reflect deeper issues within the global economic environment? What complex economic challenges and opportunities do these changes present for investors, particularly in China and the U.S.?

What’s the 

Impact of Weakened

Global FDI?

Deep-Seated Causes of the Weak FDI

The slowdown in global economic growth, combined with heightened geopolitical tensions, has exacerbated uncertainty in the investment environment. Companies have become more cautious in their market expectations, impacting their investment decisions. Trade conflicts and geopolitical disputes have increased the risks of investing. In this broader context, traditional cross-border investment decision-making is being challenged, with investors leaning towards allocating capital in domestic or more stable markets.

Economic Slowdown and Geopolitical Tensions

Tightening Financial Conditions

In 2023, tighter financial conditions, rising interest rates, and increased financing costs have made it harder for businesses to secure funding. These changes have prompted companies to adopt a more conservative approach to investment, limiting the flow of capital. While there might be a slight rebound in 2024, the current financial challenges continue to put pressure on FDI.

The global push for a minimum corporate tax rate has had a significant impact on the financial transactions of multinational companies. This policy, aimed at curbing tax avoidance through profit shifting, has made businesses more cautious in their investment decisions, affecting FDI inflows. For example, since the Brexit referendum, the UK has experienced a sharp drop in FDI. In 2023, post-Brexit uncertainty and new tariff barriers prompted many multinational companies to reassess their investment plans in the UK, particularly in sectors like finance and manufacturing, where the loss of seamless access to the EU market has made it harder to attract foreign capital.

Policy and Tax Changes

Belle C / 文

In-Depth Analysis: The BroaderImplications of Weak Global FDI

FDI not only brings capital but also introduces technology and management expertise, driving innovation in local businesses. If foreign capital inflows are insufficient, local companies may lag in terms of technological advancements and market competition, forcing nations to rely on other economic stimulus measures, which could increase fiscal burdens and lead to policy instability.

Reduced FDI May Slow Economic Growth

Weakened Technology Transfer and Innovation Capabilities

FDI often facilitates the development of local businesses through technology transfer and knowledge sharing. Without these supports, local enterprises may struggle to sustain technological innovation, which could hinder the overall innovation ecosystem. For instance, tech parks might see slower development due to a lack of technical support, negatively impacting the region's innovation climate.

Pressure on Financial Markets and Currency Stability

Social Instability and Policy Challenges

In light of the trend of weak global foreign direct investment, high-net-worth individuals in China and the U.S. need to adopt more flexible asset allocation strategies. In the current economic environment, first of all, it is advisable to reduce reliance on a single market and diversify investments across multiple sectors and regions to mitigate risks. Second, consider increasing investments in emerging technologies and renewable energy sectors, which offer high growth potential, to capitalize on new opportunities during the global economic transition. Finally, for family businesses, fostering the next generation’s human capital and strengthening innovation management and financial planning will help maintain long-term wealth growth in an uncertain economic environment.

艾利德·视界

洞见全球趋势  挖掘财富先机

  iLEAD HORIZON

艾利德·视界

洞见全球趋势  挖掘财富先机

  iLEAD HORIZON

A decline in FDI could lead to a reduction in foreign exchange reserves, putting pressure on currencies and financial markets. In developing countries in particular, the decrease in foreign investment may impact foreign reserves, increasing the risks of currency depreciation and inflation. This pressure could negatively affect economic stability.

The reduction in FDI will directly impact employment, especially in industries and regions that are traditionally highly dependent on foreign capital. Higher unemployment rates could fuel social discontent, affecting societal stability. How governments respond to these challenges through policy adjustments remains uncertain. For asset holders in China and the U.S., this uncertainty further heightens the need for political risk management.

iLead Group Commentary:

Issue 1,  2024

What Will Be the Next

The global economy operates like a complex machine, driven by countless interactions between individuals and forces. Every unforeseen event has the potential to become a "black swan" in the global economy, disrupting stability and triggering far-reaching consequences. The many challenges and uncertainties facing the global economy today make predicting the next black swan event even more complicated. According to forecasts by the IMF and OECD, global economic growth in 2024 is expected to be between 2.7% and 2.9%. However, regional economic disparities could set off a chain reaction. This begs the question: What will the next global economic black swan be?

As one of the engines of the global economy, China’s economic movements are critically important. Despite multiple stimulus measures introduced by the government, recovery still faces challenges. The continued slump in the real estate market, slow growth in the export of electric vehicles and consumer electronics, and the complex geopolitical risks surrounding Taiwan all carry the potential to trigger ripple effects across global markets, increasing uncertainty.

Potential Risks in China's Economy

Black Swan Event?

Uncertainty in U.S. Monetary Policy

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has a profound impact on global markets. While there is a general expectation of continued rate cuts, actual economic data could prompt the Fed to maintain or even raise interest rates. Such shifts could lead to significant volatility in capital markets, with emerging markets facing risks of capital flight and currency depreciation, further destabilizing the global economy.

Policy Adjustments from the Bank of Japan

The Bank of Japan recently ended its long-standing negative interest rate policy, and there is considerable division in the market over expectations for future rate hikes. If the Bank of Japan raises rates too quickly, it could negatively impact economic growth, affecting global market stability and potentially becoming another black swan event.

Other broad factors beyond changes in national policies

The pandemic has exposed the fragility of global supply chains. Any disruption in the supply of key raw materials, such as rare earth elements, could have profound impacts on the high-tech industry. Drastic price fluctuations could set off a chain reaction in global markets.

Global economic black swan events often go beyond the scope of traditional forecasting. By thoroughly analyzing current risks and potential variables, we can better prepare for future uncertainties. In this ever-changing world, finding a steady course amidst complexity will test the wisdom of global economists and policymakers. Only by maintaining sharp insights and flexible strategies can we move forward confidently through the storms of the future.

In the face of global economic uncertainty, while we can adopt various strategies to cope with potential black swan events, the real challenge lies in identifying opportunities within these uncertainties and capitalizing on them. The future economic landscape will be shaped by multiple factors, but with adaptability and proactive planning, we can prepare for any possible challenges. The quest for stability in times of volatility will test our wisdom and capacity for innovation. Are you ready? The next economic black swan may just be the beginning of a new breakthrough.

Claire B / 文

The highly interconnected nature of financial markets means that localized crises can quickly escalate into systemic risks. The collapse of a major financial institution could trigger a liquidity crisis and sharp asset price fluctuations, causing widespread effects on the global economy.

Extreme weather events could have significant economic repercussions. For instance, prolonged droughts or floods could lead to sharp increases in food prices, sparking a global food crisis.

While technological progress is usually seen as a driver of economic growth, certain breakthroughs could also pose unexpected challenges. Rapid advances in artificial intelligence (AI) may lead to large-scale employment shifts, exacerbating social inequality and ultimately reshaping the economic landscape.

Factor One

Factor Two

Factor Three

Factor Four

艾利德·视界

洞见全球趋势  挖掘财富先机

  iLEAD HORIZON

06

艾利德·视界

洞见全球趋势  挖掘财富先机

  iLEAD HORIZON

Issue 1,  2024

Expert Insight:

On China's wealth landscape, the title of the richest has become a "hot crown" in the capital market. Two leaders at the top of China's wealth pyramid, Zheng Huang, the founder of e-commerce giant Pinduoduo, and Shanshan Zhong, the head of beverage giant Nongfu Spring, have both chosen to remain low-profile. However, the fluctuations in their fortunes not only reflect industry volatility but also reveal the profound impact of market sentiment on both companies and individuals. Zheng Huang's brief ascension to the top was followed by the collapsed of Pinduoduo's share price, while Shanshan Zhong managed to maintain his position amid a media storm. Their journeys illustrate the clash between industry characteristics and corporate strategies.

Industry Characteristics—

E-Commerce Speed vs. FMCG Stability

Zheng Huang's Brief Reign—

The "Game of Thrones" of Capital Markets

Zheng Huang's wealth narrative is mesmerizing but fraught with risk. Pinduoduo transformed from a niche platform for low-cost consumers into China's most valuable e-commerce company, with fast user and revenue growth. However, this rapid growth model, reliant on heavy subsidies and traffic acquisition, was not sustainable. When Pinduoduo's Q2 2024 financial report fell short of expectations, its stock price plunged, shrinking Zheng Huang's wealth. The "Game of Thrones" of the capital market is particularly stark in e-commerce: rapid growth brings high rewards, but a slowdown results in sharp declines.

The End of the Pinduoduo Myth—

An Inevitable Reality

Once hailed as the "light of Chinese stocks in U.S markets," Pinduoduo even briefly surpassed Alibaba in market value. However, the Pinduoduo myth was short-lived. This phenomenon can be attributed to the capital market's "over-optimism." When a company fails to meet high expectations, stock volatility becomes almost inevitable.

At the same time, Pinduoduo's competitive environment worsened. Long-established e-commerce giants Alibaba and JD.com continued to innovate and expand, gradually squeezing Pinduoduo's market share. Moreover, Pinduoduo faced obstacles in its international expansion, with complex regulations and fierce competition stalling further growth. Eventually, these internal and external factors contributed to the unraveling of Pinduoduo's stock market success.

Ballard M / /文

Shanshan Zhong Amid Crisis—

Why He Remains on Top

In contrast to Zheng Huang's rapid rise and fall, Shanshan Zhong's wealth trajectory has been steady but more resilient. Despite Nongfu Spring being hit by a media crisis, with a decline in bottled water sales, Shanshan Zhong remains China's richest. This can be attributed to the "necessity" nature of the FMCG industry. Although rumors and negative publicity affected Nongfu Spring's brand image, the demand for bottled water, as a daily necessity, did not drop significantly.

The rise and fall of fortunes is not just a change in personal wealth but also a reflection of industry developments and market expectations. For companies to stand firm in the wealth arena, they must not only navigate industry volatility but also skillfully manage the ebbs and flows of the capital market's enthusiasm. While wealth myths may be fleeting, the long-term competitiveness of a company is the true key to victory.

艾利德·视界

洞见全球趋势  挖掘财富先机

  iLEAD HORIZON

08

艾利德·视界

洞见全球趋势  挖掘财富先机

  iLEAD HORIZON

Issue 1,  2024

Revelations

on the Rise 

and Fall of China's Richest

In today's turbulent global economy, businesses must focus on long-term strategic planning and implement accurate market forecasting and adjustment strategies to ensure lasting success. In terms of risk management, companies need to go beyond simple response mechanisms and turn them into strategic advantages by enhancing risk diversification and contingency planning systems. In this challenging era, modern business success will depend on having a forward-thinking strategic vision and flexible execution capabilities.

The e-commerce industry, where Pinduoduo thrives, is driven by speed and innovation. Pinduoduo's rapid expansion, fueled by penetrating lower-tier markets and leveraging viral social marketing, brought quick success, but this speed also brought vulnerability. E-commerce's reliance on traffic and the capital market's extreme sensitivity to growth makes it fragile. A slowdown in growth can trigger a stock price crash.

In stark contrast stands Shanshan Zhong's Nongfu Spring. The fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry, though slow-growing, is known for its resilience. Nongfu Spring's products are essential daily items, and its brand has long been ingrained in consumers' minds. Thus, despite facing public scrutiny, the widespread brand presence and consumer reliance on daily products kept it stable.

Market Lessons:

Lacey Liu / 文

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election reaches a critical stage, global markets are closely watching the policy directions of the two main candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, and their potential impact on the global economy, especially China's stock market. The two candidates' sharply contrasting policy approaches will have far-reaching implications for Sino-U.S. trade relations and related industries.

As the current Vice President, Kamala Harris adopts a moderate policy stance, emphasizing a balance between multilateral cooperation and international competitiveness. If she wins, China's stock market could benefit from her efforts to stabilize Sino-U.S. trade relations. Her policy leans toward resolving trade disputes through multilateral systems and negotiations, rather than relying solely on unilateral tariffs or sanctions.

Technological Innovation and Clean Energy: Harris is a strong advocate of the green economy and technological innovation, with policies that support accelerating the transition to clean energy. China, as the world's largest supplier of solar energy and electric vehicle components, could benefit from this shift. If the U.S. under her leadership expands investment in clean energy infrastructure, Chinese companies in the renewable energy sector, such as solar and wind energy, could see new growth opportunities.

Semiconductors and High-Tech: In the high-tech sector, Harris may advocate reducing U.S. sanctions on China's technology industry, promoting a more constructive cooperation policy. While her administration might not entirely lift the technological blockade, it could foster more open exchanges between the tech sectors of China and the U.S. This would offer some breathing room for China's 5G, artificial intelligence, and semiconductor industries, easing external constraints on critical technologies.

Consumer Goods and Healthcare: Harris’s focus on healthcare reform, particularly policies concerning health insurance and drug price controls, may boost U.S. demand for Chinese medical devices and pharmaceuticals. This means Chinese medical equipment manufacturers and high-end healthcare industries could indirectly benefit from the expansion of the U.S. healthcare market. Additionally, companies in the health and nutritional supplement sectors could gain favor as part of a global push for healthy lifestyles.

If Trump is re-elected, his consistently tough stance on China is likely to dominate market expectations once again. He advocates reducing U.S. economic dependence on China through high tariffs and technological blockades, while continuing to push his “America First” agenda. These measures could escalate trade tensions between the U.S. and China, putting additional pressure on China's stock market.

Traditional Energy: Trump is a staunch supporter of the fossil fuel industry, and his energy policies would promote increased oil and gas extraction in the U.S., weakening environmental regulations. As a global supplier of fossil fuel equipment, particularly in oil equipment manufacturing and coal technology, China could benefit from the rebound in global demand for traditional energy.

Infrastructure and Construction: Trump has promised massive investment in U.S. infrastructure, which could present opportunities for the global construction industry. As a major exporter of construction equipment and materials, China could see an increase in orders. Especially in the context of accelerated global infrastructure development, related construction and engineering companies might gain a share of the market.

Cryptocurrency and Fintech: Trump’s relatively loose regulation of the traditional financial system could fuel the growth of the cryptocurrency market. Although cryptocurrency is not legally recognized in China, the country remains a major base for cryptocurrency mining and blockchain technology applications. As global demand for digital assets rises, China could still benefit. Furthermore, fintech and blockchain technology companies could see new market opportunities globally.

The 2024 U.S. presidential election will have a profound impact on the global economic landscape, especially in shaping the trajectory of Sino-U.S. trade relations. Whether it's Harris's moderate policies or Trump's hardline stance, both bring different risks and opportunities for China's stock market. For China, investors must be cautious of the looming trade storms while actively seizing new opportunities in Sino-U.S. economic relations.

Faced with the uncertainties brought by the 2024 U.S. election, investors should adopt flexible investment strategies, balancing between potential risks and structural opportunities. It is advisable to increase allocations to safe-haven assets, such as gold or renminbi assets, to hedge against market uncertainties. At the same time, close attention should be paid to U.S. policy developments and Sino-U.S. trade dynamics. Investors should adjust their portfolios in a timely manner, ensuring short-term gains during market fluctuations while preparing for long-term growth.

VS

the Chinese

 Stock Market

Strategic Recommendations: 

欧美关税开征：

中国电动车命运几何？

Tariffs in the U.S. and Europe: 

What’s at Stake for China’s Electric Vehicles?

在全球化日益加深的背景下，中国电动车这一原本风头正劲的产业，如今却陷入了欧美贸易战的漩涡。欧盟和美国的保护主义措施不再是雷声大雨点小——从欧盟的临时关税到美国的高达100%的重税，这不仅是贸易政策的碰撞，更对全球新能源市场产生了深远的震动。那么，中国电动车的未来在哪里？关税如同一道高墙，但墙后的世界依旧充满诱惑。

欧美的关税政策这次的确不容小觑。欧盟在经过长达13个月的反补贴调查后，决定对中国电动车征收15%到30%的关税。根据欧盟委员会的数据，中国电动车的低价被认为对欧盟市场构成了不公平竞争的威胁。这一政策不仅是数字游戏，更是对中国制造业的实质性打击。

美国方面也不甘示弱，宣布将中国电动车的关税提升至100%。例如，美国对比亚迪在2024年秋季的新车款征收的关税就是这个比例，这意味着这部分的电动车价格可能会比原计划高出一倍，直接影响到其在美国市场的竞争力。此举无疑让中国电动车在欧美市场面临严峻的挑战。

欧美关税政策 — 这次不是喊口号

面对欧美的关税壁垒，中国电动车行业的顶尖企业正面临重大考验。比亚迪和蔚来等公司，原本在全球市场扩展如火如荼，但现在这些计划被关税政策打断。根据荣鼎集团的报告，这些税率可能导致中国企业在欧洲市场的利润微乎其微。比如，比亚迪在欧洲市场的电动车，一旦加上25%的关税，其利润空间将被严重压缩。

为了应对这一挑战，比亚迪已在匈牙利建立生产厂，这一举措旨在规避高额关税。蔚来也在积极布局本土化生产，以应对欧美市场的关税压力。然而，这种本土化策略涉及的生产线迁移和供应链重组，是否能抵消失去的市场份额，还需时间验证。

这场关税风波对全球供应链产生了连锁反应。欧洲市场的内部矛盾也为中国企业提供了机会。以德国为例，该国对中国电动车技术的依赖度远高于法国。这种内部矛盾使得德国政府在面对关税政策时更显谨慎，担心失去这一重要的商业伙伴。

同时，欧美政府的环保政策与保护主义行为之间的矛盾，也让市场充满了不确定性。欧洲消费者对价格和技术的敏感度使得中国电动车的竞争力面临巨大考验，而欧美政府的政策却似乎在推动市场发展与限制新能源产业之间左右为难。

中国显然不会坐以待毙，反制措施正在酝酿中。例如，中国可能会对欧盟的大排量汽车加征关税，或者对美国产品采取类似的反制措施。这些措施或将影响欧美市场的战略布局。此外，中国电动车行业可能会利用这一机会，加速全球供应链的重组，寻找新的市场定位。电动车作为中国工业“弯道超车”的代表性产业，能否在关税风暴后保持其竞争力，仍是新能源时代的一大悬念。

这场关税战争显然是中国电动车产业道路上的一片乌云，在全球供应链重塑的大背景下，这不仅是中国企业在欧美市场的一次博弈，也是全球产业链重新布局的关键时刻，中国电动车的命运如何走向，最终取决于其能否在这场全球竞争中找到新的平衡点。

中国电动车的命运 — 兵临城下

欧美关税的连锁反应 — 不只是电动车的事

中国的反制与未来展望 — 弯道还能超车吗

Lacey Liu / 文

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深度观察

Issue 1,  2024

美国最新立法对

AI行业的影响

The Impact of Recent U.S. Legislation 

on the AI Industry

Henry G / 文

在全球化日益加深的背景下，中国电动车这一原本风头正劲的产业，如今却陷入了欧美贸易战的漩涡。欧盟和美国的保护主义措施不再是雷声大雨点小——从欧盟的临时关税到美国的高达100%的重税，这不仅是贸易政策的碰撞，更对全球新能源市场产生了深远的震动。那么，中国电动车的未来在哪里？关税如同一道高墙，但墙后的世界依旧充满诱惑。

隐私保护是新AI立法的核心。AI通过大规模数据分析优化服务，但也引发了数据滥用的担忧。2024年的《数据隐私与AI透明法》要求企业在收集和使用个人数据时必须获得明确同意，并提供退出权利。具体来说，企业必须向用户详细解释其数据如何被收集和使用，并允许用户管理其数据隐私设置。

谷歌和Meta等科技巨头在广告业务中广泛使用AI来进行精准投放。根据新法规定，这些公司需要提供算法透明度，使用户能够了解广告推送的依据。这一要求提升了用户的控制权，还增加了企业的合规成本，企业需要重新设计数据处理流程，以符合新规，这可能会涉及到技术上的调整和流程的优化。

初创公司同样面临挑战。隐私立法要求在开发阶段考虑数据保护，这可能会显著增加创业门槛。开发深度学习模型时，大量数据处理的成本和时间压力将加剧。初创公司需要在数据安全和合规审查上投入更多资源，这可能会影响其创新的灵活性和市场竞争力。

除了隐私保护，新立法还关注AI算法的公平性与伦理问题。《算法公平与透明法》要求企业定期对AI系统进行审计，确保算法决策的透明性和公平性。

在金融领域，AI被广泛应用于信用评分和风险管理，但AI模型可能基于历史数据做出偏见决策，导致不公平的贷款审批。新法规要求金融机构公开算法的设计原理和数据来源，以确保贷款审批过程中的公平性，这将推动金融机构更加关注算法的设计，减少潜在的偏见。

医疗行业同样面临伦理挑战。IBM Watson健康项目在癌症诊疗中引发了争议，因为推荐的治疗方案在不同群体中表现出明显差异。新法规则要求医疗AI系统接受严格的伦理审查，确保推荐的治疗方案不会因种族、性别或年龄等因素产生不公。这一规定促使公司更加重视算法的公平性，推动了医疗AI的进步。

新法规还涉及AI领域的反垄断问题，大型科技公司通过收购AI初创企业和技术专利，迅速扩大市场份额，导致市场竞争环境恶化。《反垄断与技术创新促进法》对AI技术收购和市场垄断行为制定了更严格的规定。

新法规还涉及AI领域的反垄断问题，大型科技公司通过收购AI初创企业和技术专利，迅速扩大市场份额，导致市场竞争环境恶化。《反垄断与技术创新促进法》对AI技术收购和市场垄断行为制定了更严格的规定。

微软在AI领域的收购行动，包括对OpenAI的投资，一直备受关注。新法案将要求这些科技巨头在收购之前接受更严格的审查，以确保并购不会抑制市场竞争或扼杀创新。同时，新法案支持AI初创企业，通过增加对AI研发的政府资助、降低创业成本和提供知识产权保护，帮助中小企业在市场中立足。这将有效缓解市场垄断现象，促进更多AI技术的创新与发展。

1、隐私与数据保护：立法焦点

2、伦理与公平性：算法透明化的挑战

3、竞争与创新：反垄断与AI技术的融合

美国的AI立法不仅影响国内市场，还将在国际上产生连锁反应。新法规的出台可能加速全球AI技术监管框架的制定，尤其是在中美科技竞争背景下，可能加剧中美之间的技术竞争。尽管中国的《数据安全法》和《个人信息保护法》与美国立法有相似之处，但两国在技术监管标准和政策导向上存在差异。这种差异可能导致全球AI行业面临更加复杂的市场环境。跨国公司需要灵活调整其全球战略，确保在遵守法规的同时保持技术优势。

从隐私保护到算法公平，从反垄断监管到国际竞争，这些法律为AI技术的未来发展设定了新的规则。企业面临的主要挑战是如何在遵守法规的同时继续推动创新。正如历史上每一次科技革命带来的法律变革一样，未来，随着技术进步与立法的不断更新，AI行业将迎来更加规范和健康的发展轨道。

4、国际合作与全球标准：美国与中国的AI竞争

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艾利德观点

Issue 1,  2024

TikTok的律师指出，美国政府没有提供足够的证据证明TikTok对国家安全构成实际威胁。美国法院一贯要求在此类案件中，政府需提供具体且明确的证据支持其行政命令。这一策略充分利用了美国司法系统对于“程序正义”和证据标准的高度要求，使得政府在法律战中处于较为被动的地位。

TikTok律师还引用美国宪法中的正当程序保护，认为行政命令未给予其充分的辩护机会，违反了《美国宪法》第五修正案。这一论点有效引入了美国法院长期以来对行政行为限制的司法传统，增加了案件的法理支撑。

中美竞争中的法律博弈：如何善用美国法治环境维权

TikTok案件的背后是中美在科技与数据隐私领域的深层次对抗，而这一对抗不仅限于行政命令，也渗透到了各国的法律体系。面对如此复杂的局面，中国企业可以从TikTok的法律经验中汲取三大核心教训：

TikTok在法律辩护中还指出其为美国经济、就业和技术发展作出的贡献，尤其在其拥有大批美国员工的背景下，强调禁令将给美国经济带来负面影响。这种社会经济影响的主张不仅在法庭上产生了正面影响，也为公众舆论提供了支持，使其在政治上获得更多缓冲空间。

美国的司法独立性为企业提供了法律抗辩的机会，这要求企业在入场前就需做好充分的合规准备。TikTok在初期便积极采取了数据本地化的措施，并通过第三方公司存储美国用户的数据，旨在预防潜在的法律冲突。中国公司可以参考这一合规模式，以增强法律风险应对能力。

TikTok成功的法律抗辩还展示了如何利用美国的“程序正义”原则来为自己争取权益。中国企业可以通过聘请经验丰富的国际律师团队，运用美国法律的程序保护机制挑战不合理的行政命令，确保获得公平的裁决机会。

在中美高度紧张的背景下，企业不仅需要依靠法律手段维权，还需巧妙运用公众舆论与经济利益相关方的支持。TikTok通过展现其对美国经济和社会的积极贡献，为自己争取到了政治上的支持。这一策略提醒企业在跨国诉讼中，经济利益与法庭诉讼往往紧密相连，可以相互补充。

01、提前布局合规与抗辩策略

02、利用程序性正义维护权益

03、结合法律与公众舆论策略

法律与品牌保护：企业全球化的关键

在中美高度紧张的背景下，企业不仅需要依靠法律手段维权，还需巧妙运用公众舆论与经济利益相关方的支持。TikTok通过展现其对美国经济和社会的积极贡献，为自己争取到了政治上的支持。这一策略提醒企业在跨国诉讼中，经济利益与法庭诉讼往往紧密相连，可以相互补充。

TikTok在多个国家面临封禁的背后，反映出全球科技公司在跨国数据流动和法律框架中的复杂处境。尤其是在中美科技竞争愈演愈烈的背景下，数据主权与国家安全的博弈使科技企业面临严峻挑战。未来，如何在全球市场中实现合规与创新的平衡，将成为TikTok及其他科技企业生存的关键问题。

TikTok禁令的简要回顾：

TikTok从2019年起便卷入了中美之间的政治与法律博弈中。特朗普政府最初引用《国际紧急经济权力法》(IEEPA)试图封禁TikTok，理由是其对美国用户数据可能带来的国家安全威胁。尽管拜登政府上任后调整了这一态度，但TikTok仍然处于持续审查之下，凸显了这场斗争的复杂性。

尽管这些历史背景构成了TikTok案件的外部环境，但更值得关注的是该公司如何通过法律抗辩，在美国的司法系统中有效争取到了时间与机会。

TikTok的法律策略：挑战禁令的胜利之道

TikTok面临的主要问题是数据隐私与国家安全的争端。其法律团队采取了以下关键策略：

The Legal Battle Behind TikTok’s Future

去留背后的法律较量

Steven Y / 文

01、质疑证据充足性

02、宪法正当程序权的辩护

03、强调经济贡献

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艾利德观点

Issue 1,  2024

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